Support for spending reform used to be a low-risk exercise for Senate Democrats, because there was little chance of passage. But with prospects for the bill stronger than ever, some lawmakers are getting twitchy about actually having to say goodbye to soft money. Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana became the first to officially break ranks despite having voted for McCain-Feingold several times in the last few years. Breaux says the bill would put Democrats at a competitive disadvantage against Republicans, who enjoy a deeper base of donors for so-called hard-money contributions to individual candidates. There could be others following him. “We’re not spooked,” says one McCain aide, “but there’s a less-than-high comfort level.”
McCain also faces competition from a close friend and fellow Vietnam veteran. A bill sponsored by Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska would cap, but not eliminate, soft money, and he could siphon enough votes away to sink McCain-Feingold. Hagel, who supported McCain’s 2000 presidential candidacy, has also gotten friendly signals from the White House, which has put out the word that President George W. Bush might sign some form of Hagel’s bill. McCain and Feingold will also contend with a volley of GOP amendments designed to peel away Democratic support. Among them: “paycheck protection,” requiring unions to get permission from dues-paying members before spending money on political activity. Bush insists on it; Democrats dub it a “poison pill.” As campaign-finance reform sets sail, it is one of many hazards McCain will face.